Saturday, April 18, 2015

Home On The Range

The Market Trend Model (http://bitly.com/M_Trend_Model) moved to a neutral bias on Friday when the stock indexes sold off sharply.  Many of the major indexes moved down to their respective 50-day moving averages, while the Russell 2000 moved down to its 20-day moving average.  It remains to be seen whether the Friday sell-off was related to options expiration, a slowing U.S. economy, renewed concerns about Greece exiting the Eurozone, or some other yet unknown force.

At least for the moment my analysis from last week continues to hold true, "The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have been mired in a trading range since February...some indicators suggest the higher price moves in the indexes may not have staying power.  What is not so apparent is whether the bulls or the bears have the conviction to move the market into a definitive and sustained trend."

The inability of the stock market indexes to follow through on what appeared to be an imminent breakout of the trading range certainly augurs negatively for more price appreciation in the near term.  The current trading range appears to remain intact and lower index prices may be on the horizon.