Saturday, April 11, 2015

Channel Surfing

The Market Trend Model (http://bitly.com/M_Trend_Model) continues to show a positive bias as the market grinds higher, albeit with below average volume.  As the market indexes move higher from their March lows the market internals have slowly begun to confirm the recent price moves.

However some indicators suggest the higher price moves in the indexes may not have staying power. Most notably, the Nasdaq advance/decline volume (http://scharts.co/19gNyzU) has made a series of lower highs as the stock index has vacillated in its current channel for the last six weeks.

It is apparent the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have been mired in a trading range since February ~ a trading range only slightly above the previous trading range that ran from December through February.  What is not so apparent is whether the bulls or the bears have the conviction to move the market into a definitive and sustained trend.

Currently, the Nasdaq (http://scharts.co/1EsTYwz) appears to be building a classic "head & shoulders" chart pattern. In what could be a similarly bearish chart pattern, the S&P 500 (http://scharts.co/1LIQF6C) has printed a series of lower highs over the course of the last  two months.  Should market forecasts of a slowing economy be correct, perhaps the stock market is about to run out of steam here as earnings season gets underway.  Of course the best case scenario for continued price gains is for the market to move to new 52-weeks with expanding volume and to clearly break through the current trading range.

At the moment the general market trend continues to have an upward bias, but one must remain open to all possible outcomes.