Saturday, April 4, 2015

Expansion Contraction

The Market Trend Model (http://bitly.com/M_Trend_Model) remains with a  negative bias as most of the major indexes churned around the prior week's closing price levels. Despite lackluster performance in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (http://scharts.co/TUtyAz) continues to outperform as this index moved higher by 1.26% for the week.

Although the U.S. stock market was closed for Good Friday, futures indicated more weakness ahead with the release of a much lower than expected jobs number (http://ow.ly/Lb8Ie).  What remains to be seen is whether slowing job creation in the U.S. is a "one off" due to the extreme winter in the east or a more fundamental deterioration of the economy.

If a slowing U.S. economy in the first quarter is the result of seasonal weather factors, then I would expect any market correction to be relatively swift and short lived with a second quarter rebound to follow.  If the economy is in fact on the verge of a true contraction then the recent selling of the past two weeks is only the tip of the iceberg for the market indexes.  

At the moment the trend of the general market continues to have a downward bias until proven otherwise.