Wednesday, March 18, 2015

A Flock Of Yellen Doves

The Market Trend Model ( moved to a positive bias today when Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve appeared to become more dovish about the economy and inflation while at the same time preparing markets for a long anticipated rise in interest rates.  The stock market rallied strongly and once again demonstrated that economic growth is secondary to the central bank easy money policy of the last decade ~ remember the last time the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate was in June 2006.

In a press conference following the statement's release, Yellen said she is not ruling out a rate hike after April and that the timing of a raise is data dependent.  However the Federal Reserve has a history of changing the data points upon which it claims to be dependent.  With the Federal Reserve deathly afraid of raising interest rates while the economy is expanding, does anyone believe Janet Yellen will raise interest rates if the economy slows as forecast?  So while the Federal Reserve claims "transparency", it appears to me Janet Yellen has succeeded only in becoming more opaque.

In the end analysis, the stock market is moving up with volume expanding.  Whether this flock of Federal Reserve doves can move the market substantially higher remains to be seen.