Saturday, January 31, 2015

Stocks For Sale

The Market Trend Model (http://bitly.com/M_Trend_Model) moved to a negative bias on Wednesday when the major indices failed to hold their respective 10-week moving averages.  Stocks were definitely for sale during the month of January and this was evident from the very first day of trading in 2015.

On January 3 I wrote, "After the December v-shaped rally, the general market simply returned back to the November highs. Currently it appears the general market has formed a "double top" and lower prices may be on the horizon."

On January 14 I wrote, "If the recent market distribution since the beginning of 2015 has not been evident to you, it should now be crystal clear that stocks are in the nascent stages of a downtrend."

On January 24 I wrote, "Even with this week's QE rally, the S&P 500, Russell 2000, & Dow Jones Industrials have printed a series of lower highs and lower lows.  The Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100 managed to marginally poke above their previous week's high."

So that was then, what about now?

At the moment stocks are still under distribution.  

The major indices show two consecutive months of declining prices while the weekly time frame shows prices have been trapped in a narrow 5%-6% range for roughly the last eight weeks.  A break through the current trading range in either direction may lead to a much larger move.